Risk assets are bouncing on hopes that the US and Iran are moving toward a negotiated de-escalation, a shift that became evident as the US 10-year Treasury yield approached 4.70% while oil prices rallied in tandem. But rising yields remain the more durable problem for equities. Bonds issued by the hyperscalers have seen a sharp rise in yields of their own, which will start to constrain their capital-raising capacity just as the return-on-invested-capital debate intensifies, a debate sharpened further by the emergence of cheaper, open-source Chinese LLMs that undercut the pricing power behind years of AI capex assumptions.

Earnings season, so far, has done little to revive bullish sentiment, raising the risk that the equity correction already visible beneath the surface extends further, even though it has not yet shown up in the S&P 500 index level itself. That is precisely why the key technical levels we lay out in this issue matter now more than usual. We have included our full chart book below, with daily, weekly, and monthly indicators, to help frame where the S&P 500 needs to hold.

Our chart book, featuring 30+ charts, is attached.

After two months of sideways consolidation, a larger move is coming…