The Space Economy: Key Observations and Fundamental Cross-Checks

The Space Economy remains one of our highest-conviction thematic equity views. SpaceX's IPO roadshow is now confirmed for late June or early July, is pricing at a $1.75 trillion valuation, and prediction markets assign a 93% probability that the IPO will occur before August 31. More striking is what the market expects to happen after the bell rings: a 70% probability that SpaceX's market cap surpasses $2 trillion on the open.

The most important distinction in the current space basket is between names where analyst estimates are actively moving higher, which are the stocks with the highest probability of further re-rating, and names where the momentum is either stale or reversed. The post-Q1 earnings round has reshuffled the deck considerably.

This report updates our Space Economy coverage with technical momentum analysis across key names, cross-referenced against the latest quarterly earnings and management guidance. We first published our SpaceX IPO thesis and the stock to trade on April 3, followed by updates on April 7 and April 17. The setup has only strengthened since.

Over the past month, secondary market pricing shows SpaceX up 6.3%, but the pure-play space and high-beta names have outrun the mothership: pure-play launch and space systems stocks gained 20.3%, satellite and connectivity names added 15.1%, and the benchmark space ETF rose 8%. The sector is repricing faster than SpaceX itself.

Our highest-conviction ideas, those passing our full technical and fundamental screen, are listed below, followed by a detailed PDF report covering every stock in the universe.