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The Probability Question(s) That Actually Matter(s)
After weeks of volatility, the data is now pointing in one direction. Our proprietary trading models show a perfect statistical track record for gold over the next three months, and equities are not far behind. Most investors won't act on this. Not because the numbers are ambiguous, but because the portfolio they imply runs directly against current headlines and market consensus. That gap between what the data says and what the crowd believes is precisely where the opportunity sits.
Below the paywall, we lay out four specific trades, a multi-asset portfolio with a clear directional tilt, and walk through the probability framework behind each position. We also flag a forthcoming macro event that consensus is almost certainly mispricing, and which could act as an additional catalyst for this exact positioning.
A left-tail risk does exist, and we will not obscure it. But portfolio construction is a probability exercise, not a certainty exercise. On that basis, the case for this allocation is difficult to argue against. The numbers are below.
Gold, SP500, EM ETFs, dead cat bounce, or what are the numbers saying?
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