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In the second part of "The Debasement Trade: Debt, Demographics, and the Case for Hard Assets," we calculate the hurdle rate investors need to clear every year to stay ahead of debasement, and show which assets are, and aren't, making it. Markets have fundamentally shifted since 2020, and the real surprise isn't how debt growth has changed, it hasn't, but how inflation has, and what's now driving it. We break down exactly which forces are behind that shift, and what it means for nominal growth.
From there, we build out a full portfolio framework using ETFs anyone can implement. Does real estate still work as an inflation hedge, or has it fallen short? Which assets have actually made the cut?
This second part is now folded into the original report, bringing it to 20 pages and, we'd argue, the most important top-down framework we've published.
Please find attached our 20-page report with the most important charts.
S&P 500 performance according to the presidential 4-year cycle
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