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Our Highest-Conviction Global ETF Trades Right Now
The Fed is back in tightening mode, and this time, oil isn't the culprit. The market is pricing two 25bp hikes driven entirely by wage-sticky, non-housing services inflation: the component the Fed has never been able to break. That changes everything for global asset allocation.
A stronger dollar and lower oil prices create a clear set of winners and losers across sector and country ETFs. The AI trade is running through unexpected geography. And China is structurally on the wrong side of both.
In this issue, we map the full ETF playbook: what to own, what to short, and why the cleanest expression of this macro shift isn't where most investors are looking.
Attached is our 22-page ETF chart book covering all major sector and country ETFs. Below, we highlight our six highest-conviction trades, actionable for both long-only investors and hedge funds, each grounded in the macro framework outlined above.
We also present our highest-conviction uncrowded trade, one with 24% upside implied by a single key macro variable, and meaningful margin of safety built in before the thesis even fully plays out.
Our favorite trade could potentially return +35% if macro plays along
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